Sylvain Leduc, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department ...

"We are more likely than not to need additional adjustments, but the timing of those adjustments ​to me is something we’re ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

Read how SF Fed President Mary C. Daly outlines inflation risks from AI chip demand, tariffs, and energy costs and how these ...

Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have raised concerns about these technologies’ impact on employment, specifically, the rollout of generative AI models ...

The 2026 National Community Investment Conference in Phoenix brought together community development practitioners, policymakers, banks, Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs), nonprofits ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was broadly steady during the mid-August through September reporting period. Employers generally maintained employment levels and increased wages slightly.

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

Together with CEPR we are hosting a monthly research seminar series Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME) ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...